"Back in the days of the Cold War, the Russians could always be depended on doing whatever was in their best damn interests"
-Captain Frank Ramsey, Crimson Tide
The above quote, while derived from a work of fiction, never sounded so true two weeks ago as Russian tanks streamed into the Republic of Georgia with overwhelming ease. While the Russian government has made every attempt to make the invasion seem as a reactionary action, those who know the region's politics and Russia's intentions know that this is anything but true.
The regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia have always been problematic for Georgia. Filled with Russian citizens (who, it should be noted were all issued Russian passports within the past few months) and Russian soldiers stationed there under the guise as "peacekeepers." Under the veil of it all however, Russia has been supporting dissidents and militias in the region for ages. While the two potential breakaway regions do indeed have long standing issues with the Georgian government, their separatist goals have largely been stoked by the Kremlin, which it sees as retaliatory action for one of its former satellites so closely aligning itself with the West.
Having said that, Georgia is not without its own mistakes in the past few weeks. As Sweden's Minister of Foreign Affairs Carl Bildt said after the conflict started "When you have the option of doing nothing, or doing the stupid thing, it is better to do nothing." This is the lesson Georgia should have heeded. Yes, it is aware that Russia has been a meddling presence lately, but surely President Saakashvili should have known that shelling the capital city of South Ossetia which contained Russian soldiers would illicit a response. The result has seen his country's newly reformed military smashed by the superior Russian force, as well as countless amounts of infrastructure destroyed in Gori and Poti.
While on the face this assault looks like a Soviet style intervention, in the end the result is not as bad as it may seem. First, the democratically elected Saakashvili has been able to stay in power, and Russia made no mistake it wanted him out and a puppet government in. Second, mighty as it may seem, the Russia we see today is in significant trouble. It is estimated Russia loses 700,000 citizens a year, due to emigration, deaths, and a deficient birth rate. Lastly, with its seeming reversion towards authoritarianism, Russia has dealt itself a serious blow. Within a week after the invasion, Poland signed a missile defense deal with the U.S. Ukraine automatically offered radar sites to the U.S. as well. As badly as Russia wants its satellite countries back, the memory of Russian decree obviously rests freshly in said satellite nation's minds, and as their behavior has indicated, they have no intention of falling under that sphere again.
In the end, the past few weeks have taught the West a valuable lesson on how to deal with Russia in the 21st century. Provocation is obviously in nobody's interests, especially when the Russian bear, big as it is, is wounded and potentially dying. As usual, it seems as the age old rationale is holding true, with the best course of action is to let the bear be, and watch the wounded animal die on its own in the forest.
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